Kaercher says that risks to the filing season could include delayed tax refunds, inability to answer as many phone calls or help lines, and “there’s a question of whether they retained the right people in house” to quickly solve technical issues should they arise during tax season.

Tax refunds in 2025 are currently running 32% lower than they were a year ago. That gap is expected to close in the coming weeks, though, as returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit begin to be processed.

Fewer taxpayers are deciding to file early this tax season than a year ago, but early refunds are higher in 2025. During the first two weeks of this year's tax season, the average federal income tax refund was $2,